2016-17 Panini Revolution #31 Christian Pulisic

The 2016-17 Panini Revolution product was released on June 14, 2017, which was only eleven days after the 2016-17 UEFA Champions League final that marks the end of the 2016-17 European soccer season.  Given this, we consider this to be a 2016-17 rookie product for Christian Pulisic notwithstanding the “2017” copyright on the cards and boxes creating possible ambiguity as to whether this is a rookie product in the minds of some (we also note that this “2017” product was actually issued more than a month before the July 26-30, 2017 release of Pulisic’s Panini National Convention cards that were labeled as “2016-17” products).  Christian Pulisic’s cards in the 2016-17 Panini Revolution product include a base card #31 (which has ten parallels, including the base version) and three insert cards that each also have their own parallels.  These three inserts consist of an On the Rise insert, a Vortex insert, and an autograph card. 

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The 2016-17 Panini Revolution product was offered in two forms (hobby and blaster hanger packs) in a manner that makes the determination of the base card population require estimation.  Within the blaster hanger packs, one receives ten base cards, three Sunburst parallel cards and two Vortex inserts.  The only serial numbered cards among these are the serially numbered parallels of the Vortex inserts and there are no stated odds on those cards, so determining a print run for that product requires us to utilize our experience opening this product to calculate an approximate pull rate.  The hobby product is similar in that there are serial numbered cards with no stated print runs and with the unnumbered parallels having stated odds.  Pulisic’s Vortex insert is only available in the blaster hanger packs and the On the Rise and autograph inserts are only available in the hobby product.

Similar to the Panini Aficionado product, the 2016-17 Panini Revolution #31 Christian Pulisic base rookie card is not a short print and thus is one of the higher print run rookie cards offered for Pulisic, though we estimate the print run to still be quite low relative to most base sports cards.  The hobby product comes in 16-box cases with 40 cards per box.  We believe the average case produces around 19.33 numbered base parallel cards per case, which is approximately 1.2 per box.  With a known population of 34,800 numbered base parallel cards (100 Cosmic, 49 Magna and 25 Disco spread across a 200-card set), this means there would be a production run of 1,800 hobby cases, or 28,805 hobby boxes.  A 40-card hobby box produces 28 base cards on average for a total of 806,539 cards, or 4,033 base Christian Pulisic rookie cards.  To determine the remaining base rookie cards, we need to estimate the hanger blaster case population.  We have opened many cases of this product and believe three of the serially numbered parallel versions of the Vortex cards per blaster case is an approximate pull rate for the serially numbered parallel versions of the Vortex cards.  With three serial numbered Vortex per case and 75 numbered parallels for each of the 25 different Vortex cards it means there are 1,875 total serially numbered Vortex parallels and thus 625 blaster hanger cases, or 22,500 blaster hanger packs.  With ten base cards per blaster hanger pack that would give us 225,000 base cards or 1,125 more Pulisic base cards in the blaster hanger packs, for a total of only 5,158 base 2016-17 Panini Revolution #31 Christian Pulisic rookie cards across both the hobby and blaster hanger products.

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Aside from the base version of the 2016-17 Panini Revolution #31 Christian Pulisic, the parallel versions of this card each have a stated pull rate or a serial number (though based on the grading population reports for Galactic parallels of not only Christian Pulisic but also other players such as Lionel Messi and Christiano Ronaldo, we believe Panini may have inserted Galactic parallels more frequently than originally planned without correcting the stated odds, as the graded populations of Galactic cards exceed what the print run would be under the stated odds).  The stated pull rates/serial numbers are as follows for the nine non-base parallel versions: Astro 1:4, Infinite 1:8, Fractal 1:16, Cosmic /100, Magna /49, Disco /25, Hyperplaid 1:64, Galactic 1:128 (if the original stated odds of Galactic parallels were followed, which again we do not believe to be true) and Sunburst 3:1 (blaster hanger).  Based on these pull rates and our aforementioned calculations, here is a table of all ten versions of the 2016-17 Panini Revolution #31 Christian Pulisic card and what we believe to be the full print runs of each, from least rare to most rare (with a caveat for the Galactic parallel):